Somalia: Imminent Floods - DREF Operation, Appeal MDRSO016 Featured

In July, ICPAC issued the seasonal forecast alerting on the El Nino phenomenon that will be coupled with the effect of Indian ocean. The effect of El NiNO as per the past is usually higher in Eastern and Southern countries. In the East, the most impacted following the forecast include Somalia with onset to

materialize during the Deyr season and with a peak to impact from September 24 to October 24. Refer to figure 3 of ICPAC report generated by utilizing daily rainfall forecasts derived from three Global Climate Models (namely ECMWF, Mateo-France, and ECCC-Canada) from the C3S Climate Data Store, incorporating a collective of 112 ensemble members).

According to ICPAC, DEYR 2023 climate outlook and its implication on livelihoods and programming over Somalia issued on 05 September 2023 mentioned that the “Deyr Short Rains’’ season would have an exceptionally high likelihood (from 55% to 85 %) of 10 consecutive rainy days. Rainy days are expected with higher likelihood of cumulative amounts exceeding 150 mm.

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