The drums of war are beating loud in the Horn of Africa. The current dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia could engulf the whole region in cataclysmic violence. However, nowhere is this looming geopolitical tension followed closely with dread, uncertainty and anticipation than the Somali region in Ethiopia – a federal state inhabited by 6 million Somalis located in Eastern Ethiopia.
The rising tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia has placed the Somali region in a quandary. A war between the two countries will destabilize the Somali region – a geography with a long history of state violence and brutalities. Moreover, history could be repeating itself in the Somali region: both Ethiopia and Somalia fought over the territory during the 1977 Ogaden war that involved both the Soviet Union and Cuba.
The recent political developments in the Somali region are worrisome. Birhanu Jula, the chief general of the Ethiopian army and the man who oversaw and executed the genocidal Tigray war described the Ogaden National Liberation Front – a formerly armed Somali independence movement – which is now the foremost political party in the region as agents funded by Egypt and enemies of the Ethiopia state. Moreover, six people were killed recently in a mosque in what appears to be an attempt to ignite violence in the Somali region.
The Somali region is a product of the haphazard and improper European colonial border designs; its inhabitants experienced statist violence for decades. A war between Somalia and Ethiopia will turn the Somali region into a war arena.
